Rare Air – Contemplate 20 Points

2024 Monster Energy Supercross has been incredible, although most believe that it is inevitable that Jett Lawrence will become a champion in a little over a month. The air of brilliance that smothers Lawrence is the cause of some excitement being extracted – the common consensus is that he will win the main event unless there is some unforeseen issue like a wayward Justin Barcia or mistake.

The fact is that, despite this belief, this remains one of the closest title battles in recent history. 20 points is the difference between Lawrence and Chase Sexton in third position. In contrast, Sexton was 25 points down at this same point in 2023's Monster Energy Supercross season. This is not only a reminder of the parity that exists in the space currently, but also that anything can happen in racing. Who would have put Sexton down as the eventual champion in the April of that term? Injuries catapulted him into the position, yes, but this is not an opening to debate that. Instead contemplate the idea that it could all change in an instant.

The prospect of five outdoor stadiums making up the path to that final checkered flag is enough to ensure that no rider or team can become comfortable. This weekend's event in Foxborough, Massachusetts, could throw an additional spanner in the works, as heavy rain is forecast for the hours prior to the event. Nerves will deepen as the finale moves closer and that will make it harder to negotiate the treacherous conditions. The landscape could resurrect the enthusiasm that was prevalent in the month of January and that could cement 2024's position as one of Monster Energy Supercross' most thrilling chapters. The alternative is that Lawrence stamps his authority and renders all of this irrelevant.

It is of interest to contemplate how this season will be remembered. The last time that the top three was as close as this after 12 rounds was in 2019, yet that title battle is never referenced as a barnburner. The picture was similar at the top. Webb had five wins at this point in the season, as does Lawrence. 14 points was Webb's lead at that time and he never let his closest rival, Marvin Musquin, become too buoyant, as he concluded that term with five consecutive podiums. Ironically, Webb could be on the receiving end of that treatment across the next month. What an interesting perspective to bear in mind as the number of rounds dwindles.

Additional instances of the top three 450SX athletes being separated by 20 points or less after 12 rounds include 2011 and 2006's historic battle. 2006, in fact, is almost identical to the current outlook, as Chad Reed and James Stewart faced deficits of 10 and 20 points respectively. 2006 and 2019 share a similarity that contains vital information that helps one perceive Sexton's current chances. The rider in third position each time (Stewart and Eli Tomac) proved to be the most successful in the final part of the season. Stewart won four of the last five fixtures in 2006 and then Tomac claimed three of the last five in 2019. Essentially, both riders stepped up and it was all in vain.

To overcome 20 points in five rounds does not seem like a mountainous plight. History, however, points to the fact that it is too much to overcome without unforeseen issues like injuries or mechanical ailments. It would be so interesting to obtain Sexton's perspective on this data set and establish whether he thinks he can become an exception to the rule or will inevitably fall in line. Well, as a matter of fact, this indicates that he will have no option but to do the latter. Webb has his fate in his own hands, to an extent, and the fact that wildcards like Tomac and Ken Roczen are still in play will only aid his cause.