2023 Economy - Are you seeing signs of a recession yet?

TeamGreen
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4/16/2024 3:03pm Edited Date/Time 4/16/2024 3:26pm
JM485 wrote:
That's absolute bullshit, the metrics they use change constantly and have been changing for decades.  If we used the same metrics that they used back in...

That's absolute bullshit, the metrics they use change constantly and have been changing for decades.  If we used the same metrics that they used back in the 80s there would be a very different story to tell.

TeamGreen wrote:
We know all too well how they’ve changed the metrics, indeed the “dynamics”, by which they measure these things.  What happens when and if we actually...

We know all too well how they’ve changed the metrics, indeed the “dynamics”, by which they measure these things. 

What happens when and if we actually include ENERGY PRICES?
What happens to the numbers if we dial-in FULL TIME versus PART TIME jobs…? 
Where’s the ACTUAL & legitimate numbers of WHO is coming across the border and WHERE are they WORKING…where are they LIVING…& how does this affect the ECONOMY? 
What are the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS? 
What is the REAL AVAILABLE WORKFORCE NUMBER? 
WHY HAVE THEY CHANGED the methods of tracking those metrics?

WHY do some of us out right tell a false narrative about those things when it’s well knowin that the methods HAVE CHANGED? 

Some folks are culpable with the lies we’re being told; because, they not only ushered this shit in to our lives…they continue to lie about it.

Liar - one who knowing tells lies. 

Zycki11 wrote:
Well this is the part that becomes human psyche no doubt. Everyone is different which is a good thing and we always want opposing ideas and...

Well this is the part that becomes human psyche no doubt. Everyone is different which is a good thing and we always want opposing ideas and thoughts so we can continue to learn, grow, and thrive. The part that I do not understand is when people refuse to admit being wrong. It is ok to be wrong in life, and as humans it is our intelligence that allows us to further our minds and to see when we are shall we say mentally lazy? If you look at people who are high performers or on top of their game. They are wrong all of the time, but they learn from it. Today, people aren’t learning, they would rather drown in it. 

Talk about drowning in it?

I’ve got a very “present example”….and this specifically applies to a certain lying multi-screen-name member here in…and, know this…

They…he…is not capable of any sort of grown assed manly ownership of the shit that he hath wrought. 

From the outright lies he’s told over these last several years, come what…a decade(?) to his name calling bullshit that usually leads to him needing to back-away from a thread until such time he thinks we’ve forgotten (uh, no dude, we don’t forget). 

Then there’s his literal “losing his fucking mind” in-front of all of us when he had his own place, The Asylum. Where he outright lied, de-posted other people’s stuff including white-papers and facts stated on the record by SCOTUS, POTUS…etc. …when it didn’t suit his own psycho-narcissistic narrative. His recollection of history is based on his own imagination and fiction.

And, as I said at the beginning…he’s right here, again, under yet another name…doing the same ol’ shit: lying and fantasizing. 

I’m jus’ sayin’…and I’m still jus’ laughin’ at his Morning Joe and RMS re-issues. 

Manny 

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Zycki11
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4/16/2024 3:15pm

Some people are too stupid to save 

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The Shop

Zycki11
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4/24/2024 8:38am

No news here, a lot of us already knew that and moved money accordingly 

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motomind00132
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4/24/2024 10:46am
Zycki11 wrote:

No news here, a lot of us already knew that and moved money accordingly 

The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i have ponders for years. How do you fix a system across the world and do it fairly to everyone. An by this i dont mean what democrats mean. Which is redistribution.

Zycki11
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4/24/2024 10:53am
Zycki11 wrote:

No news here, a lot of us already knew that and moved money accordingly 

The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i...

The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i have ponders for years. How do you fix a system across the world and do it fairly to everyone. An by this i dont mean what democrats mean. Which is redistribution.

The great reset is the only way and it would make the depression look like a child. Government is well inflated and continues to inflate everything around it like Rome until it collapsed. We are right in step with history, unless we get someone like Javier Milei who is fiscally conservative and we have a congress that plays ball. But I don’t see that happening unless we have you guessed it…… ww3

1
JM485
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4/24/2024 12:58pm
The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i...

The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i have ponders for years. How do you fix a system across the world and do it fairly to everyone. An by this i dont mean what democrats mean. Which is redistribution.

They basically have two options:

1. Bite the bullet and stop inflating asset prices with government debt, which would wipe out most of the wealth of older generations that are still heavily invested in equities and real estate.  This would require admitting that we have not had any real economic growth in 15 years (mainly due to demographics, etc) which is completely unacceptable politically, as well as compete political suicide for whatever party is currently in office as asset prices drop over 50+ percent back to where they "should" be.

2. Continue to kick the can down the road and artificially inflate asset prices at the expense of opportunity for younger generations.  This is the lesser of two evils as far as they are concerned because the younger generations don't sway election results nearly as much as older generations, but more and more younger people are waking up to what this house of cards really is so that may not last much longer.

Remember, they want you fat, stupid, and lazy for a reason, and it's so you don't realize what's actually at play and how irresponsible they're really been over the last few decades.

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Zycki11
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Ankeny, IA US
4/24/2024 2:11pm
The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i...

The problem is about 90% of the population doesnt know this and doesnt understand this. But what is the answer global reset? This is something i have ponders for years. How do you fix a system across the world and do it fairly to everyone. An by this i dont mean what democrats mean. Which is redistribution.

JM485 wrote:
They basically have two options: 1. Bite the bullet and stop inflating asset prices with government debt, which would wipe out most of the wealth of...

They basically have two options:

1. Bite the bullet and stop inflating asset prices with government debt, which would wipe out most of the wealth of older generations that are still heavily invested in equities and real estate.  This would require admitting that we have not had any real economic growth in 15 years (mainly due to demographics, etc) which is completely unacceptable politically, as well as compete political suicide for whatever party is currently in office as asset prices drop over 50+ percent back to where they "should" be.

2. Continue to kick the can down the road and artificially inflate asset prices at the expense of opportunity for younger generations.  This is the lesser of two evils as far as they are concerned because the younger generations don't sway election results nearly as much as older generations, but more and more younger people are waking up to what this house of cards really is so that may not last much longer.

Remember, they want you fat, stupid, and lazy for a reason, and it's so you don't realize what's actually at play and how irresponsible they're really been over the last few decades.

Responsibility? lol that is funny. I just am happy we have a few on here who understand the larger scope of things economically. Good god it is hard to read some do the shit 

2
Titan1
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Lehi, UT US
4/24/2024 3:53pm

So...I'm seeing more and more of the top economists being forced to acknowledge that the books are being cooked...for example, the BLS has been 212K for 5 of the last 6 weeks...huh?

Quote from Jim Bianco:

"Initial jobless Claims was reported at 212,000 last week. How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number.  Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for holidays weeks.  Consider the US is a $28 Trillion economy. It has 160 million workers. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file.  Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week.  yet this measure is so stable that it does not vary by even 1000 applications a week.  Just the number of applications incorrectly filled out every week should cause it to vary more than this."

Another report not jiving with BLS numbers...S&P global yesterday, showing that the services employment index fell almost four points to 47.3 in April, in contraction and taking out hte low we saw back in 2019.

 

Anyway...really unusual things going on...

4
Ob917
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Carlsbad, CA US
4/24/2024 6:42pm

This is the most interesting thread on vital right now. I love reading all your opinions on  this economic stuff. Some of you guys are smart and experienced AF. I’m trying to learn from you brainiacs 

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