Market testing the lows from Oct

XXVoid MainXX
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12/20/2018 6:45am Edited Date/Time 12/20/2018 9:54am
Picked up another share of AMZN this morning at 1482. I might buy another share if it comes down some more. If it hits 1450 I'll get another one. I would like to pick up some more TSLA as well but I'm going to wait until right before 4Q report to do that. I think it's going to come down some more. It looks like I should have moved everything into UVXY a few months back.
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12/20/2018 12:28pm
This is killing me Void. The only stock I own which is advancing is Upwork. Apple is tanking on me. The rest of my stuff is mixed in ETFs and bonds and managed by E-Trade.
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APLMAN99
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12/20/2018 12:41pm
As of just a bit ago, all 4 major indices hit a new 52 week low during today's trading.

Here is what they were at, obviously there will be some change before closing.



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XXVoid MainXX
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12/20/2018 12:56pm Edited Date/Time 12/20/2018 12:59pm
Definitely a rough day. A couple more days like this and all the gains that I have made in stocks since I started 3 years ago will be gone. Sad Wish I had some extra cash laying around to double down!!! Smile I did end up getting that 2nd share of AMZN today. I should have cashed out some of my TSLA when it was up over 370. I keep telling myself I'm going to do that every time it gets to the high side of the rollercoaster but I never do. Maybe next time. But, I need to get some more when it hits the bottom side.

The Shop

XXVoid MainXX
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12/20/2018 1:17pm
Was thinking about retiring early. Guess I'll be putting that off for a little while longer. Smile
mx617
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12/20/2018 1:38pm
To change the subject slightly, what do you think they should do right now as far as their business strategy? Here's something I've been thinking about...
To change the subject slightly, what do you think they should do right now as far as their business strategy? Here's something I've been thinking about. Because they are a public company and because they've been pummeled so hard by the shorts the last few years about them "bleeding/burning cash" I think they are a little gun shy and now that they are profitable they have indicated they plan on being profitable from here on out. But, I don't think that's the right course of action. I don't consider "investing in capital" to be "bleeding cash". They've shown now that they can borrow a bunch of money, spend it on infrastructure to build and assembly line that leads to a flow of cars coming off of that assembly line at a rate which makes them profitable and able to pay off the loans they obtained to build the assembly line.

My thought is, now is the time to borrow even more money to get the Model Y, the semi, and the pickup truck lines going. Yeah, they'll be "bleeding cash" for a while again while they do that but now is the time. They have such a lead over the competition right now I think it would be stupid to wait for them to catch up. Now is the time to strike. They've proven they can do it.
Finally getting around to answering lol.

If i were them I'd focus on the the semi, and specifically building a market in Europe. Their emissions regulations are way more strict, and having a smaller area to work with might make it easier. I say this assuming that a Tesla semi isn't going to pull up to the same supercharger as a Model X. But who knows. As for borrowing, I don't know the financials well enough to say one way or the other, but I'd want to make sure cash flow is secure and that they're hedged someway against rising rates.
mx617
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12/20/2018 1:44pm
Definitely a rough day. A couple more days like this and all the gains that I have made in stocks since I started 3 years ago...
Definitely a rough day. A couple more days like this and all the gains that I have made in stocks since I started 3 years ago will be gone. Sad Wish I had some extra cash laying around to double down!!! Smile I did end up getting that 2nd share of AMZN today. I should have cashed out some of my TSLA when it was up over 370. I keep telling myself I'm going to do that every time it gets to the high side of the rollercoaster but I never do. Maybe next time. But, I need to get some more when it hits the bottom side.
This is part of why I was asking about an exit strategy. A little harder to do with stocks, but a systemic rebalancing plan can take some of the emotion and guess work out of the decision making.

I'm seriously considering a leverage right now, first good drop we've had in so long I want to throw some money at it. I do mutual funds, so I'm thinking borrow $50k with interest only payments at $150/mth into a 100% equity portfolio and let 'er rip. I might do 10-20% into some sector funds like natural resources or maybe small cap stuff.
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XXVoid MainXX
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12/20/2018 1:50pm
They sell a lot of model S and X in Europe. As far as Model 3 the demand still outweighs the supply, even just in the US. Making enough to sell to the rest of the world will take more infrastructure/capital. They are just now getting started on the Gigafactory 3 in China and should be pumping out cars in 2 years or less there. I think all/most of the funding for that is coming from China as well.
borg
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12/20/2018 3:31pm
Was thinking about retiring early. Guess I'll be putting that off for a little while longer. Smile
Market keeps breaking down below support. We're back to last September now. We have chewed through half the gains from 2017. At the time I thought it was "irrational exuberance" but would not have expected this.
Ebs
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12/20/2018 5:35pm
So now has to be a pretty good time to jump dump some money on the market, or am I not seeing something here?
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XXVoid MainXX
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12/20/2018 5:44pm
If you have extra cash to spend I would say now is a great time to get in. It may still go down a lot more but eventually it's gotta come back..... I hope. Smile
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TXDirt
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12/20/2018 8:51pm
I’ve been picking up some oil stocks each day that are currently under $2 a share. When oil comes back, which it always does, you can turn that $2 into $8 on many of these small cap oil stocks. I’ve kept some powder dry for when they dip under $1 a share and I plan on buying 15k-25k shares. Will be a big pay day when/if they go back to $6-$8 a share. Obviously some risk involved here but some big payouts can be had.

I’m not a big fan of buying expensive single share stocks like Amazon for example. It takes a lot to move a single share. If you buy one share at $1,482 it takes a lot to move that share up. At current price takes a lot to get a 6x return. Now on the flip side of that it’s a very safe stock.

Conversely, you could lay down the same amount of money on a beaten down oil stick. Take the $1,500 and buy 750 or even 1,500 shares.

When oil comes back those will easily be 6x -8x return on your money.

Obviously there is more risk here because you could lose your money. But you could also be looking at cashing out and making a very tidy profit.
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12/20/2018 10:35pm Edited Date/Time 12/20/2018 10:53pm
TXDirt wrote:
I’ve been picking up some oil stocks each day that are currently under $2 a share. When oil comes back, which it always does, you can...
I’ve been picking up some oil stocks each day that are currently under $2 a share. When oil comes back, which it always does, you can turn that $2 into $8 on many of these small cap oil stocks. I’ve kept some powder dry for when they dip under $1 a share and I plan on buying 15k-25k shares. Will be a big pay day when/if they go back to $6-$8 a share. Obviously some risk involved here but some big payouts can be had.

I’m not a big fan of buying expensive single share stocks like Amazon for example. It takes a lot to move a single share. If you buy one share at $1,482 it takes a lot to move that share up. At current price takes a lot to get a 6x return. Now on the flip side of that it’s a very safe stock.

Conversely, you could lay down the same amount of money on a beaten down oil stick. Take the $1,500 and buy 750 or even 1,500 shares.

When oil comes back those will easily be 6x -8x return on your money.

Obviously there is more risk here because you could lose your money. But you could also be looking at cashing out and making a very tidy profit.
Do you mind sharing some of those oil stocks? I was thinking the same thing with all the talk of oil going down. I was looking at MDR. They have lost a lot over the last three months

Goofy Foot
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12/20/2018 11:20pm
TXDirt wrote:
I’ve been picking up some oil stocks each day that are currently under $2 a share. When oil comes back, which it always does, you can...
I’ve been picking up some oil stocks each day that are currently under $2 a share. When oil comes back, which it always does, you can turn that $2 into $8 on many of these small cap oil stocks. I’ve kept some powder dry for when they dip under $1 a share and I plan on buying 15k-25k shares. Will be a big pay day when/if they go back to $6-$8 a share. Obviously some risk involved here but some big payouts can be had.

I’m not a big fan of buying expensive single share stocks like Amazon for example. It takes a lot to move a single share. If you buy one share at $1,482 it takes a lot to move that share up. At current price takes a lot to get a 6x return. Now on the flip side of that it’s a very safe stock.

Conversely, you could lay down the same amount of money on a beaten down oil stick. Take the $1,500 and buy 750 or even 1,500 shares.

When oil comes back those will easily be 6x -8x return on your money.

Obviously there is more risk here because you could lose your money. But you could also be looking at cashing out and making a very tidy profit.
Do you mind sharing some of those oil stocks? I was thinking the same thing with all the talk of oil going down. I was looking...
Do you mind sharing some of those oil stocks? I was thinking the same thing with all the talk of oil going down. I was looking at MDR. They have lost a lot over the last three months

Yeah TX Dirt, share your oil stocks already...we have been patiently waiting. Smile I shared UVXY on the first page and it's up 30%. For everyone else wanting to play, if you want to make some real money you might want to learn how to play options. For example, if Void Main sold his 1 share of Amazon and bought some options, he could double or quadruple his money in a few weeks. I'll use Apple January 170 Calls as an example:

Void Main could buy 7 contracts for a total of $1351. The share price below is $1.93 and each contract consists of 100 shares, so it's $193 per contract x 7 = $1351

Now, let's see how much he would make. He has until January 18th before the contract expires:



And if you want to really gamble and go for it, you could buy these Dec 28th 165 Calls for $63 per contract. He could afford 23 contracts for a total of $1449. This is a "go big or go home", but he could double his money in a day (note the .63 cents per share price):


One more for those who think the market will bounce back from it's current level. Take $9,618 and buy 14 contracts of Jan 70 Puts for UVXY. Let's see what happens (just note the share price of $6.87):

TXDirt
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12/21/2018 6:08am
I've been making a some big gains on DNR and CHK.

Primarily DNR as it is heavily tied to oil prices. Obviously it's getting killed right now. It's a good buy opportunity. It can and probably will still go lower. I'm buying as it goes down under $2. If it goes under a dollar I will buy a huge load of DNR. You just have to hold it long enough for oil prices to rebound. That can take a few years depending on many factors. There is risk here, but I don't think bankruptcy is likely at all. I already own several thousand shares under $1 and would love to add a lot more this time around.

A few year ago I was heavily invested in DNR at about $3.75 a share. It started tanking and I kept accumulating as it went down. At a certain point I had about $30,000 invested with a value of about $10k. So I was pretty worried. It dipped under a dollar and I obviously bought a few thousand shares but was real scared to back the trunk up and buy 10-15 thousand shares because of how much I already had invested and had paper loss at that point. I was completely wrong and should have loaded up big time because it climbed to about $6.75. I sold off all my shares that were above $3 and made a nice profit.

Understand it's real easy to have hindsight on a stock. However this time if if it goes under $1 I will load the boats with DNR and hold long. Anything under $2 is a good buy and anything under a $1 is great. You can make some real big money here.
XXVoid MainXX
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12/21/2018 7:20am Edited Date/Time 12/21/2018 7:22am
Yeah, less risky. I would like to get in on some dollar stocks too. I did well with Amazon though. I bought in at 500 3 years ago and it was up over 2000 before this big turd showed up. Picked up a couple more shares yesterday thinking confidently it will come back after this turd gets flushed.
XXVoid MainXX
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12/21/2018 1:46pm
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the upturn.
early
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Fantasy
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12/21/2018 2:47pm
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the...
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the upturn.
Are there ANY signs that there are not rough waters ahead?
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borg
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12/21/2018 6:07pm
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the...
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the upturn.
Will you know when the upturn arrives?
1
XXVoid MainXX
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12/21/2018 7:11pm
Well assuming it continues to go down below what I sell at and then at some point turns around and goes back above that point (with some extra margin) I buy again. But it would suck if it recovered fully in one day and I miss it. Doubt that will happen though. Smile I'll just ride it out because I have no balls.
12/21/2018 7:54pm
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the...
I'm half tempted to just cash out all my stock while I am still ahead a "little" over the last 3 years and wait for the upturn.

2
MotoMo165
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12/23/2018 11:56pm
This is why I love vital. Investing money in oil stocks real soon ?
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JWACK
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12/24/2018 7:16am
Well assuming it continues to go down below what I sell at and then at some point turns around and goes back above that point (with...
Well assuming it continues to go down below what I sell at and then at some point turns around and goes back above that point (with some extra margin) I buy again. But it would suck if it recovered fully in one day and I miss it. Doubt that will happen though. Smile I'll just ride it out because I have no balls.
What online trading service do you use?
I've been looking a bit but there's a ton of options.
XXVoid MainXX
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12/24/2018 7:22am
I started with Scottrade but TD Ameritrade recently bought them out so currently with TD Ameritrade. I have no complaints with them.
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APLMAN99
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12/24/2018 10:20am
3 of 4 major indices in Bear territory, and the DJIA is knocking on that door pretty loudly......


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